The World Cup draw can sometimes resemble a confusing awards ceremony, with next summer’s groupings now set.
This is a very large-scale competition. 48 teams are divided into 12 groups and will compete in three countries: the United States, Canada and Mexico.
So many countries taking part means there is likely to be less risk of any surprises in the group stages. FIFA’s intricate draw process Designed to maximize balance among the 12 groups, some groups are undoubtedly more difficult to navigate than others.
Who falls into the “Group of Death” for this tournament? Which group has the closest matchup? Which countries will be most happy with Friday’s draw? allow Competitor To walk you through some numbers.
It is difficult in international football to predict how good a team will be in major tournaments, for a number of reasons. Recent results may provide a misleading narrative, and it is impossible to predict which country will be the dark horse that few expect to launch a late attack.
Using FIFA’s world rankings as a measure of team strengthwe can select the most and least competitive groups for next summer out of 12 groups. To be clear, we’ve decided to pick the statistically strongest nation in each play-off contender, but the remaining qualifiers in the coming months are sure to hold surprises.
If you’re looking for a traditional team of death, there are three contenders to keep an eye on.
Assuming Iraq and Ukraine win their respective play-offs, Group I and F look to be the two most threatening teams on average. With a group of France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq ranking as the statistically strongest nations, there are plenty of stories to decipher.
The 2026 World Cup is happening near you (Oli Scarfe/AFP via Getty Images)
The French team will be the favorites to win the championship. Although this is the first time that the Norwegian team has qualified for the competition in 27 years, do not underestimate their strength. Any team with the creativity of Martin Odegaard and the brute force of Erling Haaland should be taken seriously, and Solbakken’s side are gathering strength. No country has seen a greater rise in its FIFA rating than Norway since this time last year.
In Group F, the Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia and (possibly) Ukraine will face stiff competition, but with the four qualifying teams in Group L without any uncertainty, you could argue that England are theoretically the strongest known group of the dozen or so.
Thomas Tuchel’s side remain confident of advancing to the knockout rounds, but facing Croatia, Panama and Ghana will not be an easy task. Ghana look to be the easiest team, but they top their qualifying group with 8 wins and 1 loss in 10 games.
In the 2018 World Cup, the Croatian team eliminated England. In the same year, they also defeated Panama 6-1 in the group stage. However, this Panamanian team is stronger than the one they faced seven years ago. Only Spain and Uzbekistan have received higher FIFA ratings than Panama since the last World Cup in 2022, underscoring the upward trajectory of Thomas Christiansen’s side.
The margins will be tight in every group next summer, but for those looking for the group of statistical death, you might have just found it.
Is England head coach Thomas Tuchel facing a tougher team than he expected? (Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
USMNT fans may not want to hear this, but statistically Group D contains the closest nations. This is measured by looking at the distribution (or standard deviation) of the four ratings within each group.
On paper, Mauricio Pochettino’s side are better than Australia, Paraguay and (possibly) Türkiye, but that’s about it. Team USA will have home field advantage, but each game in Group D is expected to be hotly contested.
In comparison, the four teams in Group H have the largest gap. European champions Spain look like the statistical “winners” of the draw, with Luis de la Fuente’s side easily the strongest nation in a group that also includes Uruguay and Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, World Cup newcomers Cape Verde – ranked 68th in the FIFA world rankings – prop up the rest of the side and any positive result against Spain could prove to be one of the biggest shocks of the tournament.
From an individual player perspective, many neutral fans view Norway’s match against France as a mouth-watering match, as Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland will compete for the title role.
Fortunately, the pair’s league goal numbers this season are perfectly matched, averaging an astounding 1.1 goals per 90 minutes. Mbappe currently has 16 goals ahead of Haaland’s 15, but whether for club or country, you can be very confident in one fact: both are very, very likely to get on the scoresheet.
As the tournament expanded from 32 to 48 teams, the concept of the Group of Death was always downplayed. The same 16 deaths will be recorded, but far fewer will meet the death-makers in the group stages. Two-thirds of the teams now advance to the knockout rounds instead of half, and with more teams participating, the top teams face weaker opponents in their groups.
The chart below shows the average strength of World Cup groups since 2010, using each tournament’s pre-draw standings. Even if the highest-ranked playoff team advances, next summer’s average will drop below 30 for the first time. If the expected playoff teams advance, the average gap between the strongest and weakest teams in each group will widen to 56 places, compared with 36 places for Qatar.
That’s a far cry from 2014, when half of the eight groups had an average ranking of 20 or lower, including strong Group G Germany (2nd), the United States (13th), Portugal (14th) and Ghana (23rd). Brazil, meanwhile, faces Haiti next summer with a ranking gap of 79 places, its widest since 2010, when top-ranked Brazil beat North Korea (91st) 2-1.
But rankings are just a snapshot and ignore team trends. Only Switzerland has remained neutral, with its ranking points remaining unchanged since the 2022 World Cup.
In fact, Brazil have dropped more points in the standings than any other promoted side, while their Group C opponents Haiti, Scotland and Morocco have all gained momentum.
The quality of this World Cup may be diluted, but throughout the tournament some teams will perform better or worse than their rankings suggest. Costa Rica proved this in 2014, finishing top of a group that included Italy, England and Uruguay, with all teams ranked in the top ten at the time of the draw. The group stage “Reaper” won’t shelve that scythe just yet.